Round Two - Boston vs London - Toss Up?

This is a series based on overall closeness of numbers which makes it very difficult to give a clear cut favourite.
by Gary Graves | May 3, 2026

When the playoff season starts, anything can happen. Upsets will happen and giants can fall. As Boston prepares to play game 1 tonight against its rival the London Monarchs, we peel back the onion that will be this matchup. Looking at the overall numbers, this would appear to be a very even matchup that could be over quickly or go the distance.

The Tale of the Tape - Overall

Category

Colonials

Monarchs

Edge

Record

55-23-4

52-21-9

Boston (slight) 

Goals For/Game

3.66

3.98

London

Goals Against/Game

2.59

2.77

Boston

Power Play

22.3%

20.8%

Boston

Penalty Kill

80.4%

81.8%

London

Shots/Game

31.1

35.3

London

Shots Against

27.6

28.1

Boston

 

Note the Colonials will need to be more disciplined as they averaged 9.2 PIM/Game compared to London’s 8.3

Goalie comparison

Boston: Darcy Kuemper (Edge)

  • .912 SV%
  • 2.39 GAA
  • 44-15-3

London: Jake Oettinger

  • .906 SV%
  • 2.63 GAA
  • 24-8-4 record

Since acquiring Oettinger from Seattle, he has provided stability in the crease for London and was solid in round 1.

Head-to-Head Comparison - Defense

Category

Edge

#1 Defenseman

London (Harley and Ekblad over Andersson offensively)

Top Pair (healthy)

London

Top Pair (Ekblad out)

Boston

Depth (3–6)

Boston (clear)

Physicality

Boston

Defensive reliability

Boston

Offensive upside

London

Special Teams impact

Slight Boston edge if Ekblad misses the first few games nursing his current injury.

Overall, Boston has more depth on the backend – Edge Boston

Star Power vs Depth – Offense

Category

Edge

Elite scoring (Top 6)

London

Forward depth (Top 9)

Boston

Secondary scoring

Boston

Line matching flexibility

Boston

London is top-heavy and explosive which allows the Monarchs to blow out opponents, whereas Boston is layered and matchup-proof and spreads out their scoring. If top line with Aho can be contained, Boston could advance.

Overall edge to London on offense.

X-Factors

Thomas Harley – a true difference-maker from the backend

Mark Scheifele – point-per-game player who could swing games

With only one point in the standings separating the teams in the regular season, this matchup is too close to call so I will take Boston in 7 games and hope I am right!

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