Home and Away: Numbers Don't Lieby Eric Schneider | April 8, 2018, 5:59 PM ET
Alright folks, prepare to have your minds blown: teams play better at home than on the road.
I know, this is even bigger than my last analytics article in which I demonstrated that "teams that score more goals than they allow tend to win more games." Incredible. Bear with me though.
So far this season, the league average home ice winning percentage is 0.587, compared to an away winning percentage of 0.514 (you can thank 3-point games for the asymmetry there). That means, over the course of a full 82-game schedule, an average team will win three more games at home than they will on the road.
Why should you care? Because that average belies an insane spread. Check out these outliers:
Best home teams:
T-1st: Ottawa, Brandon, Acadia = 0.722
T-2nd: Kansas City, Boston = 0.708
3rd: Philadelphia = 0.681
Best away teams:
1st: Stockholm = 0.721
2nd: Vancouver Island = 0.700
3rd: Havana = 0.686
Biggest positive difference (how much better at home than on the road)
1st: Fredericton = 0.324 (0.671 home, 0.347 away)
2nd: Ottawa = 0.294 (0.722 home, 0.429 away)
3rd: Vancouver = 0.284 (0.569 home, 0.286 away)
Biggest negative difference (how much better on the road than at home)
1st: Dublin = 0.128 (0.486 home, 0.614 away)
2nd: Havana = 0.116 (0.569 home, 0.686 away)
3rd: Vancouver Island = 0.103 (0.597 home, 0.700 away)
Note: records include April 7th results.